Mid-Week Market Minute 3.27.24

Positive Pace for Indices; GDP, PCE Price Index Data This Week

Stocks were largely unchanged midway through this holiday-shortened trading week. With Good Friday later this week, Thursday will represent the final day of trading for both stocks and bonds in March. As of Wednesday’s open, all major indices are on pace to finish March higher, led by International Developed stocks (MSCI EAFE index) which have rallied more than 3%. The S&P 500 is set to finish March a little more than 2% higher, while the Russell 2000 is on pace to finish the month higher by about 1%. In bonds, the Bloomberg US Aggregate index is looking to sneak out a positive return of approximately 0.60%, while municipal bonds look to finish the month mostly unchanged. 

Inflation remains top of mind for the markets as investors look ahead to this Friday’s release of the Core PCE Price index, which is expected to show inflation at around 2.8% year-over-year. At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed released their updated Summary of Economic Projections, which showed expectations for the Core PCE Price Index to reach 2.6% by year-end. Outside of inflation, Thursday will bring the final reading of Q4 2023 real GDP growth, which is expected to remain unchanged from last month’s estimate of 3.2%. As we look forward to the second quarter of this year, we expect inflation and the corresponding impacts on monetary policy to remain the primary drivers of sentiment.

Source: GSAM, CNBC, JPMorgan

This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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