Mid-Week Market Minute 7.5.23

Positive First Half of 2023; Jobs Report on Friday

Stocks around the globe were mostly unchanged to kick off the second half of 2023 in this holiday-shortened trading week. For the first half, global stocks were firmly in positive territory across the board. After rallying nearly 17% through June, the S&P 500 total return index now sits less than 5% from all-time highs. In addition, the Nasdaq wrapped up the first six months of the year higher by 32%, marking the largest first-half rally since 1983. Meanwhile, international stocks had a strong start to the year as well, with the MSCI EAFE higher by about 12%.

For the rest of this week, investors will keep a close eye on a couple key releases. Minutes from the June 13-14 Fed meeting are due on Wednesday afternoon. Investors will sift through the minutes closely, looking for guidance to where monetary policy may go from here. Right now, the markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of one additional 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month. Friday’s jobs report also will factor into the Fed’s upcoming decision as the labor market remains a bright spot for the economy. Analysts expect the report to show the U.S. economy added approximately 225,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.6%. 

Source: GSAM, CNBC, JPMorgan

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